An Obituary - (Common Sense)

After the sad event last week (Mumbai's Taj and Oberoi attack) , i heard people blaming politicians for not taking the right steps. Let the few days pass by and we will stop discussing this blame game and go back to our routine life. But the first thing what came to my  mind after this was the obituary printed in london times forward to me by my friend. I thought that this is time i put it on my blog for all to read. below it goes .....

An Obituary printed in the London Times........ Interesting and sadly

rather true.

'Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense, who has been with us for many years. No one knows for sure how old he was, since his birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red tape. He will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:

Knowing when to come in out of the rain; why the early bird gets the worm; Life isn't always fair; and maybe it was my fault.

Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don't spend more than you can earn) and reliable strategies (adults, not children, are in charge).

His health began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but

overbearing regulations were set in place. Reports of a 6-year-old boy

charged with sexual harassment for kissing a classmate; teens suspended from school for using mouthwash after lunch; and a teacher fired for reprimanding an unruly student, only worsened his condition.

Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the job that they themselves had failed to do in disciplining their unruly

children.

It declined even further when schools were required to get parental

consent to administer sun lotion or an Aspirin to a student; but could not inform parents when a student became pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.

Common Sense lost the will to live as the churches became businesses; and criminals received better treatment than their victims. Common Sense took a beating when you couldn't defend yourself from a burglar in your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.

Common Sense finally gave up the will to live, after a woman failed to

realize that a steaming cup of coffee was hot. She spilled a little in her

lap, and was promptly awarded a huge settlement.

Common Sense was preceded in death, by his parents, Truth and Trust his wife, Discretion his daughter, Responsibility his son, Reason

He is survived by his 4 stepbrothers;

I Know My Rights

I Want It Now

Someone Else Is To Blame

I'm A Victim

Not many attended his funeral because so few realized he was gone. If you still remember him, pass this  link on. If not, join the majority and do

nothing.

What's Your Recovery Rate?

What is your recovery rate? How long does it take you to recover from actions and behaviors that upset you? Minutes? Hours? Days? Weeks? How long? The longer it takes you to recover the more influence that incident has on your actions, the less able you are to perform to your personal best. In a nutshell the longer it takes you to recover the weaker you are and the poorer your performance.

Just ask yourself:

How many times have I got upset with my spouse or partner for something the children did hours ago? How many times have I missed an opportunity because I was still focussed on an upset and all I could say was ‘NO’ to everything? How many times have I driven my car erratically because I was still thinking of an incident that made me angry? The point is: a poor recovery rate affects your health. A poor recovery rate affects your well being. A poor recovery rate stops you from living to your potential.

You are well aware that you need to exercise to keep the body fit and, no doubt, accept that a reasonable measure of health is the speed in which your heart and respiratory system recovers after exercise. Likewise the faster you let go of an issue that upsets you, the faster you return to an equilibrium the healthier you will be. The best example of this behavior is found with professional sportspeople. They know that the faster they can forget an incident or missed opportunity and get on with the game the better their performance. In fact, most measure the time it takes them to overcome and forget an incident in a game and most reckon a recovery rate of 30 seconds is too long!

How long does it take you to recover and overcome and forget and incident at work or at home?

A method that I and many others use to help us reduce the recovery time is the method of the FULL STOP.

Imagine yourself to be an actor in a play on the stage. Your aim is to play your part to the best of your ability. You have been given a script and at the end of each sentence is a full stop. Each time you get to the end of the sentence you start a new one and although the next sentence is related to the last it is not affected by it. Your job is to deliver each sentence to the best of your ability.

Now think about your life. Imagine life is no more than a play, a drama and we each have a role to play in that drama. Your job is to play your part to the best of your ability and the better you play your part the more chance that you will inspire others around you to improve their performance. Each incident you face is a new sentence. Just put a full stop behind it and start again. Accept that every time you meet someone or have a conversation with a person on the telephone or even send an email it is a new incident. You have both moved on since you last met, so remembering the last occasion only keeps you in the past and stops you moving forward. Stops you seeing new opportunities. The next time you see the person that upset you, or you upset, is a new occasion there is nothing to be gained by continuing from where you left off. The incident has finished. You are both in a different place now. It is a new sentence so start again.

My grandmother used to call it destiny. “Accept what has happened as part of your destiny and live with it”, was a favorite phrase of hers. You cannot change what has happened. Sulking or Brooding will not help. Analyzing will only give you a headache and keep it fresh in your mind. In the same way that you cannot enter the same river twice, you will never face the exact same incident again so why analyze that one? You can however notice whether you have a habit or thought pattern that clicks in certain circumstances and stops you performing to your best. You can then look at the habit and decide how you can change it.

The secret to a better life is be like the sportsperson, ask yourself:

Did I recover quicker today than I did yesterday?

Did I recover quicker this time than the last occasion I faced a similar incident?

Did I allow myself to be average today?

Did I equal or improve on my personal best today?

Don’t live your life in the past! Learn to live in the present, to overcome the past. Stop the past from influencing your daily life. Don’t allow thoughts of the past to reduce your personal best. Stop the past from interfering with your life. Learn to recover quickly.

What we are suggesting is not an easy path. To work on your recovery rate and make changes in your thoughts, behavior and attitudes requires a great deal of effort. However, the rewards are also great. It is important that you don’t force yourself to work on your recovery rate because you think you ought to or must or because you feel it will ‘make you a better person’. There's no benefit in that because you will not stick to the task. You will make a great deal of effort at the beginning but when you are not achieving the results you want you will stop or look for another technique. Only when you really feel you want to change.

When you realize life is not working for you at the moment using the methods you are using will you put in the effort to change your behavior to improve your recovery rate. You can only improve your recovery rate when you can see that there is great benefit for the self.

Once you decide you wish to improve your recovery rate, you will start to check and change your thoughts and behavior and make effort to perform to your personal best. You can check your progress by measuring the speed in which you are able to apply a full stop. The time it takes you to let go. The time it takes before you are functioning at or near your personal best again.

Check yourself:

What was my recovery rate after the argument with my partner?

What was my recovery rate after I lost a sale?

What was my recovery rate after I received a ticket for speeding?

What was my recovery rate after I heard a friend was ill?

What was my recovery rate after I got frustrated with myself over………?

But remember; Rome wasn’t built in a day. Reflect on your recovery rate each day. Every day before you go to bed, look at your progress. Don’t lie in bed saying to yourself, ‘I did that wrong’. ‘I should have done better there’. No. Look at your day and note when you made an effort to place a full stop after an incident. This is a success. You are taking control of your life. Remember this is a step by step process. This is not a make-over. You are undertaking real change here. Your aim: reduce the time spent in recovery.

The way forward?

Live in the present. Not in the precedent.

 

(Source of above article unknown)

How can this be applied to the trading (trading recovery).

Recovery is very important factor in trading, it should be very fast else as said "the longer it takes you to recover the weaker you are and the poorer your performance becomes" ---

1. once you miss the trade check how fast you stop thinking on that missed trade and start looking for the new trade.

2. How fast do you recover after the gud and bad trade both.

3. If I am not comfortable i'll not trade, who ever tells me and i don't regret for not doing it even if it goes correct.

4. How fast i throw of my frustation when market is not showing any activity and enjoy the in-activity.(no compulsory trading)

5. How fast do i throw out my panic and take proper steps to protect my profits and investments.

6. How fast i take my losses and and cut the furthur losses.( i.e. allow yourself to take loss sometime, as they are good for health of your bank balance)

“Remember how often you have postponed minding your interest, and let slip those opportunities the gods have given you. It is now high time to consider what sort of world you are part of, and from what kind of governor of it you are descended; that you have a set period assigned you to act in, and unless you improve it to brighten and compose your thoughts, it will quickly run off with you, and be lost beyondrecovery.”

Marcus Aurelius quotes

Power of Positive Talk and Training

I remember my dad teaching me the power of language at a very young age. Not only did my dad understand that specific words affect our mental pictures, but he understood words are a powerful programming factor in lifelong success.

One particularly interesting event occurred when I was eight. As a kid, I was always climbing trees, poles, and literally hanging around upside down from the rafters of our lake house. So, it came to no surprise for my dad to find me at the top of a 30-foot tree swinging back and forth. My little eight-year-old brain didn't realize the tree could break or I could get hurt. I just thought it was fun to be up so high.My older cousin, Tammy, was also in the same tree. She was hanging on the first big limb, about ten feet below me. Tammy's mother also noticed us at the exact time my dad did. About that time a huge gust of wind came over the tree. I could hear the leaves start to rattle and the tree begin to sway. I remember my dad's voice over the wind yell, "Bart, Hold on tightly." So I did. The next thing I know, I heard Tammy screaming at the top of her lungs, laying flat on the ground. She had fallen out of the tree. I scampered down the tree to safety. My dad later told me why she fell and I did not. Apparently, when Tammy's mother felt the gust of wind, she yelled out, "Tammy, don't fall!" And Tammy did. fall.

My dad then explained to me that the mind has a very difficult time processing a negative image. In fact, people who rely on internal pictures cannot see a negative at all. In order for Tammy to process the command of not falling, her nine-year-old brain had to first imagine falling, then try to tell the brain not to do what it just imagined. Whereas, my eight-year-old brain instantly had an internal image of me hanging on tightly.

This concept is especially useful when you are attempting to break a habit or set a goal. You can't visualize not doing something. The only way to properly visualize not doing something is to actually find a word for what you want to do and visualize that. For example, when I was thirteen years old, I played for my junior high school football team. I tried so hard to be good, but I just couldn't get it together at that age. I remember hearing the words run through my head as I was running out for a pass, "Don't drop it!" Naturally, I dropped the ball.

My coaches were not skilled enough to teach us proper "self-talk." They just thought some kids could catch and others couldn't. I'll never make it pro, but I'm now a pretty good Sunday afternoon football player, because all my internal dialogue is positive and encourages me to win. I wish my dad had coached me playing football instead of just climbing trees. I might have had a longer football career.

Here is a very easy demonstration to teach your kids and your friends the power of a toxic vocabulary. Ask them to hold a pen or pencil. Hand it to them. Now, follow my instructions carefully. Say to them, "Okay, try to drop the pencil." Observe what they do.
Most people release their hands and watch the pencil hit the floor. You respond, "You weren't paying attention. I said TRY to drop the pencil. Now please do it again." Most people then pick up the pencil and pretend to be in excruciating pain while their hand tries but fails to drop the pencil.

The point is made.
If you tell your brain you will "give it a try," you are actually telling your brain to fail. I have a "no try" rule in my house and with everyone I interact with. Either people will do it or they won't. Either they will be at the party or they won't. I'm brutal when people attempt to lie to me by using the word try. Do they think I don't know they are really telegraphing to the world they have no intention of doing it but they want me to give them brownie points for pretended effort? You will never hear the words "I'll try" come out of my mouth unless I'm teaching this concept in a seminar.
If you "try" and do something, your unconscious mind has permission not to succeed. If I truly can't make a decision I will tell the truth. "Sorry John. I'm not sure if I will be at your party or not. I've got an outstanding commitment. If that falls through, I will be here. Otherwise, I will not. Thanks for the invite."People respect honesty. So remove the word "try" from your vocabulary.
My dad also told me that psychologists claim it takes seventeen positive statements to offset one negative statement. I have no idea if it is true, but the logic holds true. It might take up to seventeen compliments to offset the emotional damage of one harsh criticism.

These are concepts that are especially useful when raising children .
(Source of the above article unknown)

What I feel is that the brain is just like a software program, the better you program it the better result it will deliver. It is much easier and faster for the brain to learn new things than we think, we just need to allow our brain to learn more.

"There is more we do NOT know about the brain, than what we do know about the brain"

Get ready For the New Upmove in Nifty and Dollar($)

We are now going toward the bottom again and this time bottom will be tested or new one will be created just below it(near 2000-1900 odd lvls) and then we go for the good up-move which will be continued for few weeks to come or may be months the target for this up-move will be around 4000 odd levels. once this bottom is tested the people will loose any hope of market rallying to new levels and this is the time market will make the new levels. Again only 20% of the participants will be going long for this move and 80% will enter at around 4000 odd levels thinking that they are going to miss the rally but then again they will be trapped at the higher levels. 

Also reiterating my thoughts on $. I said the $ can reach till 70, my friends still laugh at me seeing the rupee getting stronger. But again every one says 50 is the high and it won't go beyond.I feel very strongly that it will touch 55-60 in next 6 months and 70 in a year an half. I don't know if I would be 100 % correct but I think because of the $ being so valued entity and every country is invested in $ in is some or the other way for Oil trading or for hedging or for imports/exports anything, it is in some way or other connected to $ investment. Now because of very bad credit crises every body wants to liquidate their investment in $ and thus every body is buying the $. This is the reason I think for $ rocketing to sky in spite of the facts that there are credit crises going on globally. $ is getting stronger against each and every currency. I feel that $ and U.S. market both will rise. I guess the current pause given was because market needed the breather. $ moved from around 38 Rs to 50Rs and for further move the pause was necessary i guess. Time is god , let see if we see these figures.

“10 Tips to De-Stress"

Do you feel tense and anxious at work? Do your co-workers and/or boss make you crazy? Is your personal life less than blissful? If so, you've got stress. If you're like most people you've sought refuge from this situation by trying a quick fix or two like calling a friend, walking the dog, or going away for the weekend in an attempt to escape it all. While these strategies may serve as temporary diversions, nothing in your life changes when you return to your routine.

Stress is internal, which explains why it can wreak havoc on your health. It feels awful...it's the sense that you're not in control. The easiest way to mitigate its effect is to take charge of the one and only thing you have the power to control...YOU, and let go of what you can't control. The beauty of these tips is that by taking control of your life, external or outside, things will change in response to your internal changes.

Here are 10 tips to de-stress for your present and future:

1. Heal yourself - Dr. Bruce McEwen, who wrote ‘The End of Stress As We Know It’, suggests that eliminating stress comes right from your grandmother's journal. He says the most effective steps you can take are the simplest: exercise, a healthy diet, regular sleep, moderate to minimal alcohol intake, and no smoking. This, he notes, is the most sophisticated, up to the minute, cutting edge science available!

2. Get organized - Physical clutter reminds us of things that need to be done and that's stressful. Remove your physical clutter and you'll eradicate your mental clutter, plus you'll feel energized. Do organize your work station and keep it clean – avoid clutter.

3. Set boundaries - Boundaries act as a filter to keep you safe from the hurtful behavior of others while allowing in the love, support and nurturing actions we all need. Set your boundaries by: (a) determining what others cannot do to you or in your presence and (b) sharing this information respectfully with anyone who is stepping over one of your boundaries.

4. Take time for yourself - Put together a list of all the things you love to do but haven't regularly made time to do. Put your list in priority order and enter the top five to seven items into your daily calendar. Your list may include things as simple as journaling, reading a great book, taking a bubble bath, yoga, etc. You'll be more successful getting to these activities when you give them a time and place on your calendar.

5. Be positive - William James, the father of modern psychology said, "The greatest discovery of my generation is that man can alter his life simply by altering his attitude of mind." In other words, what you say and what you tell yourself impact the present and create your future. Love yourself and use the power of positive words, pleasing thoughts and affirming beliefs to live the life you want to live.

6. Work in a career you love - If you're like most people, you spend the majority of your waking hours at work. You'll know you're in the right profession when: you wake up anxious to go to work, you want to do your best daily, and you know your work is important.

7. Surround yourself with a supportive community -You are who you spend time with. Hang out with people who love and accept you just the way you are, are interested in you (not what you can do for them), lift you up (not wear you down), solve problems quickly, don't gossip or complain, and know how to have fun. Anything is possible with the right support.

8. Learn to say, "No." - We've all been influenced by people in our life who tell us we should do this or we ought to do that. As a result, we may end up living a life that others have decided for us versus living the life we want. So, the next time you think of something you ought to do or someone else suggests you should do, take a breath and ask yourself if it's something you want to do. If not, just say, "no" or "no thank you." When you say no to things you don't care to do, you are saying yes to you and this will free up your time and energy for the things you choose to do. Bottom line - you'll be happier.

9. Zap tolerations - A toleration is something that irritates you and drains your energy because it needs to be done, fixed, removed, or changed. If you're like most people you may be tolerating 100 or more things! Put together a list of all the things that bug you, e.g. a dripping faucet, money concerns, your weight, shopping and running errands, not enough time, computer files out of control, your hair, a room that needs to be painted, etc. When your list is complete, group like items and sees if one solution will eliminate multiple tolerations. For example, if you have piles of clothing in each bedroom, dirty windows and dust bunnies on your floor, hiring a housekeeper will zap all three tolerations. Line up a housekeeper, today. Then, commit to spending a chunk of time each week to zap your other tolerations. If you have a toleration that you don't have the skill or know-how to fix, consider calling an expert or seek out a skilled professional to trade services with.

10. Get your needs met - A "need" is not an option, it is something you must have to function fully. It is differentiated from a "want" in that a want is optional. Unmet needs can drive you to distraction and worse. Determine what you needs have that aren't being met, if any, and then take the appropriate action to get them fulfilled. Example: If you've taken a big hit and are going through a career transition, ask a good friend to call you two or three times a week to check in with you and give you support. Other options include calling your own voice mail and leaving supportive messages or hiring a coach who specializes in career transitions. When you acknowledge and satisfy your needs, you will be free to focus on other areas of your life. If you want to be happier and more successful, focus on the things you have the power to control.

These TIPS I received through the mail and thought would be helpful for everyone in their life.

 

What a Drama done by NIFTY :-)

Wish you all a Very Happy Diwali.

Stock trading is the toughest business to be in. one need to have lot of patience and consistency other than intense study. Market is going mad. It goes down like waterfall and runs up like rocket. Why it fell like waterfall ??? Why it went up like rocket ??? I REALLY REALLY DON'T KNOW :-( please tell me if you know. I am tired of finding out why market goes up a day and starts falling the very next day with out any reasons. But when i ask anyone why did it rise or fall , i am sure that he/she will have answer. And I always get the answer but always different answer from everybody and i get more confused :-( 

Now talking seriously about the current market condition, it is difficult that we would be able to get into positive trends. The companies are under immense pressure to perform, there are expected job cuts in market which could bring people more into saving mode than spending mode. Lesser demand will bring the  companies under more pressure. Commodity market is also under bear mode, too add more to it, the rupee is weakening more and more. To some of my friends when i say that $ would touch 70+ w.r.t Rs in a year or so they say Vipin your are mad. Every one says 50 is the high and it won't go beyond. I don't know if I would be 100 % correct but I think because of the $ being so valued entity and every country is invested in $ in is some or the other way for Oil trading or for hedging or for imports/exports anything, it is in some way or other connected to $ investment. Now because of very bad credit crises every body wants to liquidate their investment in $ and thus every body is buying the $. This is the reason I think for $ rocketing to sky in spite of the facts that there are credit crises going on globally. $ is getting stronger against each and every currency. I feel that $ and U.S. market both will rise from here on.

coming to Indian market now particularly NIFTY the target of Fibonacci 61.8% levels (2428.4) was achieved very easily and we went far below that and covered back quickly. Rapid movements in NIFTY caught people on both sides. few smart one as always earned on both ways as well. The next NIFTY levels which is unpredictable for me. My view is we will keep jumping up and down for quite some time now. Don't be over leveraged and be in safe and long term good quality stocks only. Here are my suggestion for few long term stocks(click here).

"Infinite money is available to a mind that is ready, willing, able, qualified and gives itself permission to earn and accept it."--Mark Victor Hansen

Nifty Views

As I said in my post "learning from mistakes" about the Fibonacci levels of 3117 (50% retracement), we took support at those levels and  reversed from there only fibo level were 3117 and yesterdays low on nifty future was also near about same level.So is this the bottom ??? To me bottom would be when we stop testing the bottom again and again. Right now as i said earlier also lets take each step at a time 3400..3600..3800..4000. These are very very optimistic figure for any body in short term trading. Beyond this no optimist would be thinking as of now.I feel that we will go down once again after the rally to test the 3000 figures and then we would finally start the new trend.

Let's take a look at yesterdays 5 min chart now.

Looking at the Yesterady five min chart there was a clear Divergence and along with that the MACD gave positive cross over and RSI were also giving the buy signals, I didn't dare to buy as last few times i made mistakes in haste but paper trade and that was an absolutly fantastic trade. It gave a rally of 200 pt from my by buy levels (bought at 3130). Divergence always gives good results this is what i have read in most books. Percent of success is also very good in divergence says few good TA's.

please take a look at the few companies in my post (click here) which are good fundamental buy and also long term buys. I feel that these companies should be the aggresive buy when we test the lower levels next time. If we dont break the current bottom levels by good margin then that would be the bottom or else 2006 bottom level that is around 2800 levels can be support if that is broken then last would be our next fibonacci levels 2450 approx (61.8% retracement)

For now we are in a pull back mode, all bad news left to come are already discounted by the market I feel. Be cautious trade small quantity, be happy with the small profits. 

Wish you all the happy trading.

"Life is just a blank slate, what matters most is what you write on it"--Christine Frankland

Long Term investments

Got this details on few companies through Friend ..putting it up so that everyone get benefit from it.

L&T
L&T has done engineering, procurement and construction projects for nuke power plants. It is currently working on the 2,000 MW Kudankulam nuclear project. The company will get into mainstream nuclear projects if the deal goes through. L&T’s talks with Toshibha failed. It entered into a recent tie-up with Mitsubishi for super critical boilers. The Mitsubishi technology would be used for Nuclear Power Corp. L&T may leverage its relationship with Mitsubishi for its other nuclear business.

LT is planning to form a Rs 2,000-crore forging venture with NPCIL. At present L&T’s reactor making segment contributes 3% to the company’s turnover and this is expected to go up to 7-10% now that the deal has been signed.

BHEL
BHEL supplies up to 500 MW of equipment to Nuclear Power Corp. It is looking for a tie up manufacturing equipment of up to 700 MW & 1500 MW. The company has been in talks with Alstom, GE Energy, Russia's LMZ and Siemens. It has an existing tie-up with Siemens for nuclear technology.

BHEL has a JV with NPCIL for manufacturing nuclear reactors and now, the signing of the deal would give this JV a major boost.

NTPC
The company is in talks with Nuclear Power Corporation of India. It is looking at setting up 2000 MW nuclear plant. He is In talks with GE Energy for technology and fuel. NTPC is looking at the project to be operational by 2012-2013.
NTPC has also drawn plans to enter nuclear power generation by setting up a 2,000 MW project. It would be easier for PSUs as there is no restriction on them.

Areva T&D
Areva T&D is looking at a plant for uranium mining and recycling. The plant would be set up after nod from Nuclear Power Corp.

Alstom Projects
The company already makes nuclear reactors and rotors. Its parent company is a world leader in conventional nuclear projects. It makes turbines for nuclear power stations. It supplies steam turbines to over 30% of nuke power stations globally.

Rolta
The Rolta-Stone and Webster joint venture competent provides reactor-building technology. It will leverage on its partner's core competency. Stone & Webster's parent has 20% in Westinghouse Electric, a nuclear reactor maker.

HCC
HCC has constructed four of seven nuclear power projects in India. It is an EPC contractor for nuclear projects.

ABB
ABB makes components for power projects. Its parent company’s exposure includes new
nuclear power plants, systems and components. The parent company’s exposure includes fuel services, waste management and decommissioning.

Crompton Greaves
Crompton Greaves works with Nuclear Power Corporation of India. It has completed a switchyard for nuclear project.

Walchandnagar Industries
Walchandnagar Industries has supplied critical components like the calandria to most of the nuclear power plants in India and now naturally be a big beneficiary.


Siemens has a marginal exposure through its parent company.

Reliance Energy plans to invest additional Rs 12,000 crore in nuclear power capacity. It plans to install 2000 MW of nuclear power capacity.

Tata Power
Tata Power has tied up with some major nuclear equipment suppliers like Areva. It already has a relationship with Toshiba;it will leverage on it.
Tata Power is looking at entering this sector either alone or in a JV once it is opened up to private utilities. It also plans to go into the business of front-end and back-end fuel cycle technology business.

Pull back in Place

As i said in my last post that we are ready for the pull back, yesterday there was the Great rally. so where can this pull back end 3600..3800..4000? don't go all long that can be dangerous, take small small longs after each hurdle is taken out keep adding more and as soon as we see signs of pull back getting exhausted, liquidate all longs. I guess we are not going to sustain this pull back for very long.

Some very good long term investment can be done in below companies. Most of these are going to be benefiting from the nuclear power investments that is being done by government. We may see these companies going down with the market but when it starts rising it will fly and you won't be able to catch it. What can be done is keep buying 10% of your target investment for next one year on every DIP.

Alsthom Projects, Areva T&D, Gammon India, Larsen & Tubro, NTPC, ABB, Crompton Greaves, HCC, BHEL and Rolta. India willing to build upto 35 to 40 civilian nuclear reactors across the country by 2020 to meet the growing power requirements by nation. There are companies like state owned NTPC which is going to be the major beneficiary along with Areva T&D and Alsthom Projects, specialized manufacturing equipment for nuclear reactors as well as service. Companies listed above are leaders with most advanced technologies in their field of services that can meet any national and international standards.

Learning From Mistakes

 In my monday morning Post i sugessted that we should buy the panic. But I think becauser I am not matured  I didn't took into the account that the US monday morning reaction can also affect us on tuesday. so the better idea would had been to wait till tuesday to see the reactions and then buy on wednesday. The fantastic buys were available on wednesday. Most of the stocks are buchered by 80-90% from their Highs. so i guess we should see the a pull back till the end of this month. After the pull back we will again start moving in original trend again. As I said earlier also that we need time to get out of this mode and it won't happen in few weeks time. According to some important fibonacci levels, 50% and 61.8% are supposed to be important retracement levels. If we have to go by fibonacci levels then

Nifty high 6357--> 50% levels( 3117) --> 61.8% levels (2428.4) , so looking at these figure it is hard to believe that we can even drop from here. As it is said that Market is nothing but a walking drunked man, so you never know where it will step next or fall next. The above levels can be used as support to go long and can even be used as your stops.

Yesterday a thought came to mind and What worried me most about the credit crunch was that if one of my cheques is returned stamped 'insufficient funds', I won't know whether that refers to mine or the bank's! :-)

P.S.-- IF you want to read more on gobal credit crunch follow the Link(GLOBAL CREDIT CRUNCH)

" If you don't design your own life plan,

chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan.

And guess what they have planned for you? Not much. " -- Jim Rohn

A Trader’s Self-Evaluation

A Trader’s Self-Evaluation Checklist By Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D!!!

1) What is the quality of your self-talk while trading? Is it angry and frustrated; negative and defeated? How much of your self-talk is market strategy focused, and how much is self-focused? Is your self-talk constructive, and would you want others to be talking with you that way while you’re trading?

2) What work do you do on yourself and your trading while the market is closed? Do you actively identify what you’re doing right and wrong in your trading each day—with specific steps to address both—or does your trading business lack quality control? Markets are ever changing; how are you changing with them?

3) How would your trading profit/loss profile change if you eliminated a few days where you lacked proper risk control? Do you have and strictly follow risk management parameters?

4) Does the size of your positions reflect the opportunity you see in the market, or do you fail to capitalize on opportunity or try to create opportunities when they’re not there?

5) Are trading losses often followed by further trading losses? Do you end up losing money in “revenge trading” just to regain money lost? Do you finish trading prematurely when you’re up money, failing to exploit a good day?

6) Do you cut winning trades short because, deep inside, you don’t think you’ll be able to make large profits? Do you become stubborn in positions, turning small losers into large ones?

7) Is trading making you happy, proud, fulfilled, and content, or does it more often leave you feeling unhappy, guilty, frustrated, and dissatisfied? Are you having fun trading even when it’s hard work?

8) Are you making trades because the market is giving you opportunity, or are you placing trades to fulfill needs—for excitement, self-esteem, recognition, etc.—that are not being met in the rest of your life?

9) Are you seeking trading success as a part-time trader? Would you be seeking success as a surgeon, professional basketball player, or musician by pursuing your work part-time?

10) Can you identify the specific edges you possess over the many other motivated, interested traders that fail to achieve success in the markets? Do you really have an edge, and—if so—what are you doing to maintain it?

For some of you who are not familiar with Brett N. Steenbarger, he is Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago and Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY. He is also an active trader and writes occasional feature articles on market psychology for a variety of publications.

Buy the extreme sentiments

There was an indication by many of good TA's about the 3600 levels  & we are here now. Lot of Drama was done by nifty in last few week and as i said we need time in my last to last post so don't assume this temporary reversal which we can see in few day as the start of bull market .Right now there is extreme negative sentiments in the global market with respect to global economic recession. Buy the Extremes is what the big folks say so this is time to go long i feel.

I thought that Nifty would cover up yesterday in later half and then it would fall again today morning. But today's morning work has already been done yesterday, we breached 3600 mark and then closed at around same levels of 3600. If nifty stays above 3565 we can expect it to cover and move slowly towards the pull back levels of 4000 ( giving technical levels here ). I feel that Nifty will open slightly negative to flat today. IF Nifty opens with the big fall and does not recover quickly then  the scenario may change.

I would like to buy the 4000 Nov call at round 80-90Rs and keep the stop loss of 15 rs. From here if nifty move as thought then we can keep our Stop loss trailing and add more calls if we feel that we are in the correct trend. Remember if we open with the big fall and do not re-cover then I would not prefer to go with this trade.

Remember that there is nothing stable in Stock market; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity, or undue depression in adversity.

Who Say It's Over

The Nifty is been fooling around common people every now and then, i guess people will suddenly become sentimental highly positive and jump in buying and the nifty will suddenly seems to be bullish and then there will be another fall, Zap boom bust. I feel people will again get trapped in the current move. Lot of people thinking the bear rally over, be aware.People say the bailout will get passed and we will have the fresh bull run now. Please stop fooling around your self if you are short term trader/investor and are going investing in bulk.Rupee is weak the American economy is also going through slow phase(Industrial output/demand down, unemployment increasing) which is not a good news. The global financial systems are going through the trouble. Lending system also needs to go through the cleaning process after the bust.How can all this be done over night. Suppose a boxer is beaten down to ground for first time he gets up quickly and starts fighting , if he is beaten down again this time it takes more time for him to get up and start fighting, suppose he gets beaten down to ground again and is beaten very badly he will try and get up but it will take more time for him to get up as he beaten down badly. He need to regain energy before he gets up. On similar lines I think after the bubble has burst it will take time for things to be back on track and run smoothly.Let be optimistic but give system the time to gain energy and don't expect a sudden steep run in market.

Also speaking according to technical charts the bull run was for about 5 years. After the down fall for just 9 months we cannot expect the market to be bullish again just because of US bailout plan. Nifty may keep a slow downward moves for few more months and then may be slowly start returning to track. And when this will happen not most people will know that the bull run has started, because people will get bored with the range bound slow movements. on the other hand it may happen that nifty keeps taking the wild jumps up and then down ,up and then down in the same range for few more months may be before it resumes the next bull. I guess may be next mid year we will see that the new bull is starting.

"Doing the best at this moment puts you in the best place for the next moment." --Oprah Winfrey

Please leave your thoughts and comments.

Dow's Historic fall

1.US bailout plan fails

2.DOW falls 777 points

3.Wachovia Bank taken over by citigroup

4.European bank nationalized

5. Crude bomb blasts in Maharashtra and Gujrat (low intensity)

 

All bad news hitting the market together so there is no Doubt that we are to open gap down tomorrow but how bad it will be, is to look for.It seems that the 3600 will be very close. If the market open near to the Lower circuit i guess it will be the better Idea to Buy than to sell for the intra Day, for medium term outlook still remains weak.

Technical indicators were already down so all technical analyst were of the view that market will come near 3600, which we are going to see in this week only i guess or may be today only if panic is not controlled.

People keep blaming others for their mistakes this is very common tendency, i believe that to take the decision is always in your hand. Listen to everyone but do what you belive and don't regret on what you have done. Learn from your mistakes and move ahead.

Dr.Edler Alexander in his book 'Come into my trading room' says:- When you make a mistake for the first time, it shows that you are alive, searching, experimenting.Repeating a mistake is a neurotic symptom.

 

A Trading Plan For Myself!!!

---Extract on trading Plan from Elder's book by Mr. Manoj---

This plan is based on much of what Dr. Elder advocates and I am deeply influenced by his methods. The main idea behind this plan is to trade short term swings. This plan lays emphasis on trading with the trend and has shades of Triple Screen method. We generally start by paying close attention to the external stimuli and market internals to check the undertones of the overall market. Then we use a wide variety of scans, which one is comfortable with to zero in on the scrips worth trading. This plan lays equal stress on strict money management. Though this plan may sound too boring or appear too long but I feel a trading Plan is essential for the survival of a good trader. All care has been taken while devising this plan to embrace the element of KISS! So here it goes;
1. The Market Internals.
Here we tend to look into a few indicators that show the overall breath and underlying strength and weakness of the general market. There are plenty of such indicators that one can use, I am particularly tryin2limit my list to just a few.
A. Vix: Vix is a volatility index. This is based on the activity of option traders. Vix is a contrarian indicator. Any readings above 35 suggest extreme pessimism and used as a buying opportunity. One should book profits when Vix is nearing 18 on its way down.
B. New High New Low Index: This is created with New Highs-New Lows. This is a very important indicator. It signals important turns in the market when it diverges from the Price. One can also use A/D ratio for the same purpose.
C. Open Interest: It pays to monitor Open Interest. Monitor the changes in Open Interest. Keep a tab on the puts and calls. The max Open Interest in particular calls and puts is suggestive of the resistance and support the scrip is likely to encounter. Along with Open Interest keep a watch on the PCR.
2. Scans For Choosing The Stocks To Trade.
There is a wide variety of scans one can choose from; again this is a matter of personal choice. I like to use;
Price Volume Breakout
MACD Divergence
Triple MA Crossovers
The Visual Scan (patterns etc); I consider this as the most important!
Whenever you run your scans the list needs to be additionally filtered by running the Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) and ADX filters. The idea behind such filters is that we want to zero on the scrips which are outperforming the Index and are showing strength (RSC). The ADX filters those scrips where the trend is strong and the move will be fast and strong. Again I repeat why we use such filters is that we want to get into the scrips which are ready to move immediately (ADX+25) and are likely to outperform (RSC).
3. Chart Analysis.
Armed with the list of scrips we now move on to Chart Analysis. First on our list is;
Monthly Chart: I use Monthly Charts to see the broader trend and some major support and resistance areas.
Weekly Chart: This is very important from the point of view of a Swing Trader. Weeklies are the first things we look into. In here we identify important S/R levels. We look at patterns if unfolding and general Pivot Points.
Daily Chart: This is used for action. In the daily chart we look for Swing Highs and Swing Lows. We also pay close attentions to the patterns. Judicious use of MA’s and Trend Lines intimate us of future S/R levels.
Hourly Chart: This is primarily used for the purpose of fine tuning our entries and exits. For a Swing Trader this particular chart is of no major importance but for the Day Trader this is the most important chart.
Since we are dealing here with the charts, it would be prudent to bring up the topic of indicators to be used. I personally feel the choice of Indicators is a personal one. Use what one is comfortable with. Personally I like to overlay my price pane with 20/50/200 EMA,s. A price Envelope, to identify targets. The Lower panes are occupied with RSI/MACD and Stochastics.
4. ABC Rating.
Once our chart reading is over we yet again rate the charts in the order of their priority. We rate them on scale of ABC. A stands for high probable trade that we our likely to take the very next day. B is for a trade where we think that the trade needs to be worked upon for sometime before initiating an entry into it. C is for the trades where we can see some major patterns unfolding. The trade looks promising but needs time to develop; hence patience is required to let it ripen before we taste the fruit.
5. Taking The Trade.
This is where all the above leads to. Pulling the Trigger. Books have been written about this but I would rather keep it short and sweet. TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TREND. We only initiate our trade when our Daily Chart is in sync with our Weekly Chart. Anything contrary is sacrilege. After doing all the above exercises we do not want to blow it up by going wrong in pulling the trigger. Even the best of trade setups go awry if we jump too soon. It is said there are three very important rules that can give you the best entry in the world. These rules are Patience, Patience and more Patience! While speaking about taking the trade one of the most important things before initiating the trade is defining of the following; the Entry Price, the Stop Loss, and the Exit price. If you are unsure of any one of these three you are not allowed to enter. The next step after entry is to monitor the trade and take profits when target is achieved. Here if one feels that the target is likely to be overshot then one can use trailing stop. Another golden rule GREED IS GOOD but never ever let your winning trade get into a loss. Love your losses so much that you want to take them as soon as they occur!
6. Money Management.
This pertains to most what Dr. Elder teaches. Never bet more than 2% on a single trade. Never loose more than 6% of your capital in a month. Very simple yet hardest to follow. This is the HOLY GRAIL. If you have mastered this then you are THE MASTER!
7. Organized Trader.
This lead to the finale where all the above ends! Yes the very important part The Documentation. Every trade needs to be carefully documented. Every chart needs to be marked and saved. Every lesson learnt every moment of Glory, every moment of Despair needs to be saved and well documented. This forms the foundation on which you will build your successful trading career.
This is the gist of a good trading plan. This is not a final plan coz there can never be a final plan. We change with times things change there will be changes or rather should be changes in this plan as we move forward in our journey. You need to make a plan that suits you, a trading plan is like a well-fitted suit, every individual has different styles but the basic structure stays the same!!! I am tryin2implemnt my plan, if you have any further additions or refinements to the above then do let me know.

Special Thanks to Mr. Manoj for this write up on the Plan.

Bankruptcy Concept... Easy One to Understand...

Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollars as there were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.

1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B and C each owned 1 dollar.

2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, now A and C own 1 dollar each while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.

* The net asset of the country now = 3 dollars.

3) Now C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country, and land is non producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he borrowed 1 dollar from A, and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the land from B for 2 dollars.

*A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B sold his land and got 2 dollars, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollars but with his 1 dollar debt to A, his net residual asset is 1 dollar.
* Thus, the net asset of the country = 4 dollars.

4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted having sold it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollars from B and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollars. The payment is by 2 dollars cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to C. As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollars. But since he owed B 2 dollars, his net asset is 1 dollar.

* B loaned 2 dollars to A. So his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 5 dollars. A bubble is building up.

(5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollars. The payment is by borrowing 2 dollars from C, and cancellation of his 2 dollars loan to A.

* As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollars, but since he has a debt of 2 dollars with C, his net Asset is 2 dollars.
* C loaned 2 dollars to B, so his net asset is 2 dollars.

* The net asset of the country = 6 dollars; even though, the country has only one piece of land and 2 Dollars in circulation.

(6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.

(7) One day an evil wind blew, and an evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey, what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There is only 2 dollars in circulation, and, I think after all the land that B owns is worth at most only 1 dollar, and no more."

(8) A also thought the same way.

(9) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore.

* So, in the end, A owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owed C 2 dollars and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollars is now 1 dollar. So his net asset is only 1 dollar.
* C has a loan of 2 dollars to B. But it is a bad debt. Although his net asset is still 2 dollars, his Heart is palpitating.
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.

(10) So, who has stolen the 3 dollars from the country ? Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land was worth 4 dollars. Actually, right before the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6 dollars on paper. B's net asset is still 2 dollars, his heart is palpitating.

(11) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2 dollars bad debt to B, but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1 dollar now.

* A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B is bankrupt, his net asset is 0 dollar. ( he lost everything )
* C got no choice but end up with a land worth only 1 dollar

* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars. 

************ **End of the story; BUT ************ ********* ******

There is however a redistribution of wealth.
A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.

(i got this story from one of the fwd mails from the friend & is not constructed/written by me)

But few points worth noting -

(1) When a bubble is building up, the debt of individuals to one another in a country is also building up.
(2) This story of the island is a closed system whereby there is no other country and hence no foreign debt. The worth of the asset can only be calculated using the island's own currency. Hence, there is no net loss.
(3) An over-damped system is assumed when the bubble burst, meaning the land's value did not go down to below 1 dollar.
(4) When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows having the land or extending loan to others are the losers. The asset could shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.
(5) If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar or another piece of land but refrains from taking part in the game, he will neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land go up and down like a see saw.
(6) When the bubble was in the growing phase, everybody made money.
(7) If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is worthwhile to borrow money (like A ) and take part in the game. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.
(8) As in the case of land, the above phenomenon applies to stocks as well.
(9) The actual worth of land or stocks depend largely on psychology.

"I cannot afford to waste my time making money."

US BailOut effect

The US  Financial Bailout was just like and injection given to the dying patient; the patient survives but if you are expecting the patient to get up and start running immediately, you are then just fooling your self. How do the fundamentals change within the Day? we have seen yesterday the market was confused it was moving up and down and up and down didn't knew where to go. As the effect of injection goes out after some time, i see the effect of Bailout injection also going out completely today.

I believe we should keep buying for long term only and in small small quantity. We should research and then buy the stocks which have more potential to grow in future rather than just buying the current Blue Chip companies.I feel investing in power companies which are going to get benefit from nuclear energy would be the good deals to buy now. I suggest NTPC,Rolta,GVK Power,BHEL among the some which would get benefit out of this deal.

I guess because of the good policies and actions of RBI regulation the PSU banks are having the least exposure to the bad mortgage debts and are least affected by the big falls seen in the market currently.So in coming day i think the PSU banking stocks will ride, but there is exposure in Private sector banks and bank like ICICI and other banks which have exposure will definitely see the effect of the US fall. On the Banking index technically i see the inverse head and shoulder in picture but unless the neck line is crossed it won't move up and it is good for pattern to complete because some times incomplete pattern are dangerous.

Get Ready for the Big Fall today, its time for all bears to celebrate.